Category: Grand National

The short answer is lamentable, or so it might appear, at first glance. Up to and including the 2021 renewal of the Grand National, the world famous steeplechase has been run 173 times, but has been won by a grey horse on just four occasions, or just 2% of the time. However, if you consider that just 3% of thoroughbred racehorses are grey, in the first place, and grey horses are more susceptible to certain health issues, including equine melanoma, in later life, perhaps their record in the Grand National isn’t so bad after all.

In any event, The Lamb was the first grey horse to win the Grand National, battling to victory on heavy going in 1868, as a six-year-old. Indeed, having missed the next two renewals of the Grand National, for various reasons, The Lamb returned to Aintree in 1871, as a nine-year-old; having jumped well, he quickened clear in the closing stages to win the celebrated steeplechase for the second time.

The next grey horse to win the Grand National was Nicolaus Silver, fully 90 years later, in 1961.

Favoured by the firm going, the Fred Rimell-trained nine-year-old established a narrow advantage approaching the final fence and only had to be kept up to his work on the run-in to beat the fading Merryman by 5 lengths.

After another 51-year hiatus, the last grey horse to win the Grand National was Neptune Collonges in 2012. A stable companion of Denman and Kauto Star, behind whom he had finished third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup four seasons earlier, the 11-year-old earned his own place in Aintree folklore when catching Sunnyhillboy in the final stride to win by a nose.

The standard each-way terms on any horse race are dictated by the number of runners and, once that number rises to twelve or more, by whether or not the race is a handicap. The Grand National is, of course, a handicap, in which a maximum of 40 runners are permitted to participate. Thus, if bookmakers apply the strict letter of the law, the standard each-way terms are the same as any other handicap with 16 or more runners; first, second, third and fourth place are paid, at one quarter of the win odds.

However, the Grand National is so much more than just another handicap; it’s a British institution. The last two renewals attracted peak viewing figures of 9.6 million and 8.8 million, respectively, in Britain alone and, with over £100 million bet on the race, industry-wide, bookmakers are invariably falling over themselves to attract the attention of once-a-year punters. Consequently, even in the ante-post market, some bookmakers offer five or six places – albeit at a rather miserly one fifth of the win odds – as standard.

On the day of the race, some bookmakers may go a stage further and offer enhanced each-way terms, involving seven, eight or even ten places at one fifth the win odds. However, take notice of the win odds they offer, which are likely to be reduced, sometimes significantly, to compensate for the increased liability, on the part of the bookmaker, in offering enhanced each-way terms.

Ironically, the record for the most finishers in the Grand National was set in 1984, the first year in which the field was limited to a maximum of 40 runners. Favoured by unseasonably good going and carrying just 10st 2lb, Hallo Dandy, trained by Gordon W. Richards and ridden by Neale Doughty, was heavily backed to improve on his fourth place in the 1983 Grand National and duly obliged. The 10-year-old was the first of 23 finishers and was followed home by the favourite, Greasepaint, and the 1983 winner, Corbiere, with 100/1 outsider Canford Ginger the last to finish.

By contrast, the record for the fewest finishers in the Grand National was set, in foggy conditions on heavy going, in 1928. A total of 42 horses faced the starter on that occasion, but only two finished and only one jumped all 30 fences at the first attempt. A pile-up at the Canal Turn on the first circuit, initiated by the well-fancied Easter Hero, who fell into the ditch on the take-off side, decimated the field, such that only seven horses remained.

Heading into the closing stages, just five remained, but both Maguelonne and May King blundered and unseated rider at the final open ditch, four from home. Great Span, too, unseated his rider when his saddle slipped on take-off at the penultimate fence, leaving Tipperary Tim and Billy Barton to fight out the finish. Tipperary Tim appeared to be going the better of the pair at the final fence, where Billy Barton took a tired fall, leaving the unconsidered 100/1 outsider to gallop home in splendid isolation, with just a loose horse for company. Billy Barton was remounted to finsh second, a distance behind the winner.

The first point to mention about the age of recent Grand National winners is that, in 2012, the race conditions were changed such that horses aged less than seven years became ineligible. However, no horse aged less than eight years has won the Grand National since Bogskar in 1940, so the change is of little consequence.

For the record, the oldest winner of the Grand National was the 15-year-old Peter Simple in 1853, while the youngest winners were the five-year-olds Alcibiade, in 1865, Regal, in 1876, Austerlitz, in 1877, Empress, in 1880, and Lutteur III, in 1909. Overall, the most popular age for a Grand National winner is nine. Nine-year-olds have won 47, or 27%, of the 173 runnings of the Grand National since its inception in 1839.

Since the turn of the twenty-first century, just one 12-year-old, Amberleigh House in 2004, has won the Grand National and no horse older than that has been successful. Otherwise, notwithstanding the previous comment about horses aged less than eight years, there has been uniform split between the ages of the winners. Five eight-year-olds, five nine-year-olds, five 10-year-olds and four 11-year-olds have won the Grand National in the last twenty runnings. In other words, apart from suggesting that relatively young, inexperienced horses should be avoided, along with those into the veteran stage of their careers, recent trends offer few clues about the likely age of the winner.